Soybeans dragged the grain markets lower overnight after an initial boost, down double-digits on a generally negative outside market environment; weather forecasts are a bit uncertain into the end of the week, but containing nothing as of yet to put a damper on strong USDA crop forecasts.

Macquarie pegged the ‘12/13 Australian wheat crop at 25 MMT this morning, down from a record 29.5 MMT last season, and a million below the USDA number yesterday due to less favorable weather and acreage loss to canola.

Conab raised their ‘11/12 soy forecast by slightly over a million tonnes yesterday, to 66.7 MMT, right as the USDA was lowering their estimate of the crop by 1 MMT to 65.0 MMT. Conab has corn output pegged at a record 65.9 MMT, up 800k from April but still below the new USDA 67.0 MMT number.

The Buenos Aires Exchange sees a 13% drop in Argentine wheat plantings in 2012/13, to 4.0 million hectares, matching the USDA’s initial number yesterday; other estimates have the YTY acreage drop at 15% or more this season.

The Rosario Exchange yesterday pegged ‘11/12 Argentine soybean production at 40.9 MMT, with corn at 19 MMT, both well below April estimates.

May CBOT Deliveries: beans 2 & 5/1; bean oil 308 & 5/10; wheat 89 & 5/1.

Matt Zeller