July soybeans were clearly the focal point of the overnight session, falling sharply again after a disastrous technical day Friday, with funds exiting long positions that had hovered at or near a record all month. The soybean complex had 2 1/2 times the trade volume of corn overnight, with July accounting for the bulk of that, and the products no slouch in that department either. With rapid planting and emergence numbers expected this afternoon, clear weather for the remaining planting this week, and a key rain possible for next weekend, the ball is definitely in the bears’ court today.
South Korea’s largest feed grain buyer tendered for up to 210,000 tonnes of corn for November/December delivery, along with up to 70k tonnes of wheat.
China’s Comm. Min. sees May soy imports at 5.63 MMT, above 4.88 MMT in April but slightly below the CNGOIC’s 5.7 MMT May estimate last week.
Friday’s traditional CFTC Report showed slightly higher overall net fund positions across the grains as of last Tuesday than what daily trade estimates had expected, with corn up 6.6k to 158,572 net long overall, and beans down 8.8k to 249,923 net, less than 10k off the recent net record long. Oil lost 13k on the week and wheat dropped 19.4k net as of 5/8. The Disaggregated Report had producers and merchants cutting just a bit from their corn and KC wheat net longs, with the rest of the grains adding to theirs—beans up 12.5k net, oil up 21.3k net, CBOT wheat up 24.9k, and meal up 1.8k net last week.
April NOPA soybean crush is expected to come in at 131.1 million bushels this morning, down from 140.5 mbu in March, but ahead of 121.3 mbu last April; trade estimates range from 128.5-135.3 million bushels.