This morning finds an indecisive-looking grain trade following the holiday weekend, and that’s fitting in the current weather market; each side of the trade can find something to support their view between scattered weekend rains and heat, much-needed upcoming central/southern rains this week, and forecasts reverting to warm and dry for the 6-10 day and beyond.
Kazakhstan’s Ag Min reported grain exports at 10.6 MMT from July 1, 2011, up to May 24, 2012; that’s the largest amount exported during that span in the country’s history, up from 8.9 MMT in ‘08/09. Kazakhstan’s spring planting reached 76% yesterday, or 11.8 million hectares; that’s down from 12.5 mln ha on the same date LY. Corn planting hit 82% done, on just 85,100 hectares.
The E.U. is officially expecting 2012 soft wheat production at 126.5 million tonnes, down from 128.5 MMT last year and 200k less than a month ago; corn output is seen at 63.7 MMT, down from 67.5 MMT last season.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry said that grain harvest was likely to reach 47.2 MMT this year (down from 56.7 MMT in 2011), with 48 MMT a possibility due to recent rains; export potential for 2012/13 is 22.25 MMT.
Interfax-Ukraine newswires reported Friday that Ukraine is seeking to sell 3 MMT of corn to China on forward contracts for the 2012/13 marketing year.
Manitoba reported spring planting at 92% this week, with good precipitation last week and crop stand generally described as good to excellent for most.
Friday’s traditional CFTC Report showed larger net spec fund longs than daily trade estimates had expected as of Tuesday (5-22), with heavy liquidation of shorts leading to corn adding 21,377 net contracts on the week, and CBOT wheat gaining a whopping 54,621 net contracts. That cut wheat’s overall net short down to just 6k. The Disaggregated Report showed managed money funds adding over 25k net corn and 59k net CBOT wheat, with producers and merchants down 36k corn and 48k Chicago wheat on the week ending 5-22.