The grain markets started off choppy last night following a less-miserable-than-usual Crop Progress Report, but the malaise lasted no more than three hours before the rally resumed for the overnight hours. The trade has little else besides weather to discuss before the upcoming round of crop estimates (FCStone tomorrow, Informa this Friday, USDA next Friday), and the forecasts somehow seem to get worse with each passing day.

Taiwan Sugar Corp will be seeking 23k tonnes of U.S. corn and 12k tonnes of soybeans in a tender closing Thursday, with shipment set for the last half of Aug; they cancelled their previous tender this month due to high prices. The country’s corn association did buy 60k tonnes of Brazilian corn for late-Oct thru early-Nov shipment, at $350/tonne, which is about $14/tonne higher than last week and pushing $50/tonne above current C&F numbers from the U.S.

The USDA reported a two-point decline in national corn condition ratings this week, to 24% good/excellent; that’s down from 62% last year and the 65% five-year average rating. Soybean ratings also dropped two points, to 29% g/ex; that’s down from 60% on this date LY and the 62% 5YA number. Maturity metrics for both crops continued to run well ahead of LY and 5YA paces, with corn silking at 94% done, doughing 37%, and denting 13%, while soybean blooming reached 88%, with 55% of the crop having set pods. The spring wheat rating actually rose three points this week to 63% g/ex, still down from 70% LY and the 69% 5YA, while the harvest of that crop advanced to 28% done, up from just 1% LY and 3% on average. The national winter wheat harvest hit 85%, up from 77% LY and the 81% average pace.

Matt Zeller