Beans remain the clear leader of the grain complex, taking back a chunk of yesterday’s turnaround with a double-digit decline overnight and twice the volume of corn. The dollar is nearing a 20-month high, crude continues to struggle at a 6+ month low, and China soy futures reverted to a two-month bottom; ‘12/13 global production is off to the best start possible.
South Korea bought 60,000 tonnes of optional-origin corn from Marubeni overnight, at $259.50/ton, for delivery by December—it’s the lowest price they’ve paid this year, below yesterday’s purchase of U.S. Nov corn at $276.
Indonesia is once again issuing feed corn import permits due to inadequate supply, after two months of no imports amid the country’s harvest; 200k tonnes are set to arrive from India in the next months. Indonesia’s annual corn imports have increased to 2-3 MMT in recent marketing years, though very little of that has been shipped from the U.S. (including none in 2011/12).
The CNGOIC sees Chinese corn production at a record 197.5 MMT in 2012, up 3% from 2011, with acreage up just short of 3% at 34.3 million hectares (84.8 mln acres); wheat and rice output were also seen slightly higher in this season’s initial estimate, though the soybean crop is expected to drop 7% to 13 MMT in ‘12/13. 2011/12 soybean imports were estimated at 58 MMT, up 11% from last year’s 52.34 MMT, with ‘12/13 imports totaling 60 MMT; corn imports are seen at 5.5 MMT in ‘11/12 and 6.0 MMT in 2012/13.
Mexico’s Ag Min sees total corn output for 2012/13 at 22.56 MMT, up sharply from LY and 1.6 MMT above the USDA; spring/summer corn is seen up 13% this year to 16.8 MMT, with fall/winter harvest up 32% to 5.76 MMT.
Oil World yesterday pegged global ‘12/13 soy production at 274.3 MMT, nearly 3 MMT above last week’s initial USDA, and 16% above the 237.5 MMT 2011/12 crop. Oil World has Brazil output at 78 MMT next year, even with the USDA and up 19% on the year, with Argentina at 55 MMT, also matching the USDA and a full 14 MMT above the 2011/12 crop. 2012 U.S. acreage is seen well above the USDA at 75.8 million, with production at 88.7 MMT (3259 million bushels), 1.5 MMT (59 mbu) above the initial USDA.
Matt Zeller