Little has changed over the past week to give a more optimistic outlook to weather forecasts or crop ratings—another week of extreme heat and dryness is on the way, more condition declines can be expected this afternoon and probably a week from now, barring a major forecast change.

For what it’s worth, Goldman Sachs raised their three, six, and 12 month grain price forecasts this morning, with corn now seen at $6.25/bushel (up from $5.25) over all those terms; soybeans rose from $14.30 to $15.50/bu, while wheat prices were increased from $5.75 to $7.15/bushel.

Friday’s traditional CFTC Report showed spec funds adding over 22k net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (6/26), though that was still 27k short of what daily trade estimates had been expecting on that date; CBOT wheat posted a strong net 37kcontract gain on the week to stand 18k ahead of their estimated long, with KC wheat also well ahead at 12.5k net higher on the week (to 29k net long overall). The Disaggregated Report showed stronger net gains across the grains for the managed money traders, including a +41k net corn and a +45k net CBOT wheat; producers and merchants dropped nearly 25k net corn and 32k net CBOT wheat on the week.

Friday’s USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report showed U.S. hog numbers more or less in line with trade estimates, with all hogs and pigs as of June 1 at 100.8% of last year (just barely shy of the average 101.3% trade guess), while hogs kept for breeding edged out estimates at 101.0% of LY, and marketings fell only a shade behind the average guess at 100.8% of last year’s number.

Matt Zeller