SOYBEANS: LOWER
Weekend rains are dampening the enthusiasm for higher prices today. The overall effect will be positive, but not enough to yet solve our supply issues. The trend, though, is for cooler and wetter weather, which would be a relief as the supply needs all it can muster. Basis is very spotty because the river is weak, and yet, one can find excellent pushes in markets for crush. The estimates continue to point to sub-trend yields and a bit more than normal abandonment. The risk of over compensating for yield drag on acres abandoned exists, but the fact the acres are gone still points to major demand destruction needed in the U.S. to not be a major importer next summer. Spreads are still quite inverted, but some easing is occurring on the rains and tomorrow begins the Goldman Roll which should keep pressure on to ease. OI: B +2,613. Lower today as the crop “stabilizes” with rains.

Kyle Smith, Mike O'Dea, Ben Parks, Collin Hulse, Ingrid Gronlund