Profit-taking continued to weigh on the grains last night until an outside market spike gave nearby corn and soy a 5-6 cent boost, and most of the complex clung to small gains into the morning close. The bulls were happy to see a steady flow of Chinese corn demand news/speculation, bringing the focus back on that country’s recent flurry of purchases and prospects for a soybean-like import-export relationship with the U.S. in the long term.
Chinese state-owned researchers, Grain. Gov, a unit of the CNGOIC, reported that the country may have purchased up to 2 MMT of new-crop (2012/13) corn in the past week, in addition to 1 MMT of old-crop. The CNGOIC noted the $5.50/bu mark (spot CBOT) as a point where more corn could be purchased. Meanwhile, a different state researcher sees China’s corn demand outpacing production by 17.25 MMT in 2020 given a normal yield increase.
Taiwan Sugar Corp passed on their usual tender amounts of 23k tonnes of corn and 12k tonnes of soybeans this morning due to high prices—their lowest offers were $328/tonne for corn and $627/tonne for soybeans.
Japan bought 106,200 tonnes of milling wheat as planned this week, including 81k tonnes from the U.S. and 25k from Canada.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported that basically all of Argentina’s soybean crop would be unharmed by this week’s frosts, with harvest around half-done and almost the entire crop having reached maturity; their soybean production estimate remains at 44.0 MMT, below the USDA’s current 45 MMT number but well above the Ag Ministry and Rosario Exchange (both near 43.0 MMT) and recent trade ideas in the lower 40’s and even high 30’s.