Cash corn prices remain hot, holding up old-crop corn and trying to hold up the rest of the grains, but planting prospects & weather conditions look too good for an all-out rally; wheat remains the anchor, trending lower since the immediate USDA aftermath and thru the Crop Progress report.
South Korea has tendered for 140,000 tonnes of corn for Aug delivery today, after purchasing 118k tonnes of U.S. corn for September arrival yesterday.
India’s government expects their wheat harvest to fire up next week and reach the 90 MMT mark, a record crop at more than 10% above last year. India hasn’t imported or exported more than a million tonnes of wheat since ‘07/08.
Australia exported 2.42 MMT of wheat in February, according to the country’s Bureau of Statistics; that’s up 14% from January and 32% from Feb ‘11, and a nine-year single-month high for shipments. Cumulative Oct-Feb shipments stand at 9.52 MMT, up 29% from last year’s 7.4 MMT pace.
Brazilian forecaster, Agroconsult, estimated the country’s 2011/12 soybean crop at 65.2 million tonnes following a country-wide crop tour, below current estimates from Celeres, Safras & Mercado, and the USDA all consolidated in the 68.0-68.5 MMT range. Agroconsult has corn production nearly matching soy at 65.0 MMT, up 7.5 MMT from last year and above trade ideas; if corn output were to inch ahead of soy, it would be the first time that’s happened since ‘00/01. Agroconsult also estimated ‘12/13 soy planted area at “at least” 26.2 million hectares, up 1.1 mln from the current crop, and up 2.0 mln from the 2010/11 crop which produced a record 75.3 MMT harvest. Another interesting finding from the Brazilian tour was much better highway conditions, a good sign regarding the government’s recent efforts to modernize infrastructure, as well as less productivity loss by combines as equipment improves.
The Rosario Grains Exchange yesterday estimated 2011/12 Argentine soybean production at just 43.1 million tonnes, down another 1.4 MMT from its previous estimate, and on the low end of the major trade estimates that range up to the USDA’s current 46.5 MMT number.
Matt Zeller