There’s plenty of talk of “stabilization” this morning regarding crop conditions and weather, but this new environment is only really a slight improvement over one of the worst summers in U.S. history, and likely too late for any significant reversals of crop losses. Any bears out there are expecting a long, hard road ahead until the true size of these crops are known.

Japan is seeking 70,865 tonnes of U.S. wheat in a tender closing Thursday, including one cargo each of Western White, HRW, and DNS; shipment will be set on or before Nov 30. Japan has bought nearly 250k tonnes so far this month; they’ve purchased between 310 and 475k each month since last Aug.

Ukraine’s Deputy Ag Minister reported that the country will plant 8.2 million hectares (just over 20 mln acres) of winter grains this year, equal with LY. Private analysts Celeres reported the Brazilian winter corn harvest at 69% complete this week, up from 59% a year ago.

The USDA reported the nation’s corn condition rating at 23% good/excellent this week, even with last week’s rating, and down from 60% last year and the 64% five-year average number; soybeans regained a point to 30% g/ex this week, down from 61% last season and 62% on average. Crop Progress metrics remained ahead of LY and average, with corn doughing at 78% this week, denting at 42%, and 10% of the crop rated as mature; soybean blooming hit 97% complete, with 83% having set pods as of Sunday night. The U.S. winter wheat harvest gained six points to 94% done, up from 88% LY and the 91% 5YA, while the spring wheat harvest added 18% to 65% complete, up from just 11% last season and the 24% 5YA.

This morning’s July NOPA soybean crush is expected to come in at 131 million bushels, up from 134.2 bpa in June and 123.0 bpa last July. Trade estimates range from 120.5-137.0 million bushels.

Matt Zeller