Fertilizer Report, 09/11/2015

Friday, September 11, 2015

Ned Protexter


Market News and General Observations—Sep 11, 2015

"¢ Kenya is to announce they are going to build a $1 billion plant in Eldoret, Rift Valley Province. This is a move that is believed to lower fertilizer prices in Eastern Africa. This plant is to make 150,000 metric tons of NPK fertilizer which will most likely be used in this area so they will be able to cut down on imports.

"¢ Iowa Fertilizer Plant had another bomb threat in the last seven weeks. A message saying "bomb will go off downstream on Sept. 3" was found. September 3rd and come and went without anything happening although people are still on heightened alert as these threats are taken seriously. Since the CF buyout, news has been mostly quiet out of this location.

"¢ Charts this week are compared to corn futures.




· Paper markets have continued their downward trend.

· Cash markets are trading around $270 in the gulf. Midwest markets seem to be frozen at the wheel as farmers are more interested in harvest right now and are hoping prices fall later in the season.

· Egypt plants continue to be shutdown due to the natural gas shortage in the area. Egyptians hope this problem will be fixed later this month as temperatures decrease moving into the fall which will require less natural gas to be allotted to energy production.

· Physical prices around the world have been softer as demand is just not there at the moment.


"¢ Paper markets continue to follow urea markets, heading down but not as quickly.

"¢ Cash markets are mostly flat and leaning slightly weaker. Most physical movement is of tons that had already sold which has both buyers and sellers comfortable with their positions.





"¢ Interest in the country has started to pick up with farmers calling for quotes although that has not been translating into sales. The concern right now is a short fall which will have farmers switching their nitrogen source from ammonia to urea if we have colder than usual conditions.





"¢ DAP paper has held mostly steady for Tampa and NOLA has been mixed with the end result being unchanged over the last few weeks.

"¢ Cash markets have held steady with interest in the low end of the market starting to pick up. Many remain in a holding pattern, waiting for farmers to make up their mind.

"¢ International markets have been soft as of late with India prices being down as much as $10 a ton in the last week.

"¢ China is now able to product 18% nitrogen DAP which is somewhat of a standard that has held their product back in the past. This will put more product in the open market





"¢ Midwest prices continue to move lower as sellers are looking for any interest out of farmers.

"¢ Gulf prices stay mostly unchanged, running close to $300 a ton. Some lower offers have been rumored but no confirmed sales have been reported at this price.

"¢ With no widespread reports of wind or hail damage, crops continue to remain on pace from where they were a month ago as can be seen by our FCStone Crop report as well as the USDA report today. Some parts of Iowa around Ft. Dodge received as much as 6 inches of rain. From what I saw, the only areas with standing water were the same that had been flooded out earlier this season and we shouldn't see large drops in production. Crops around the Des Moines area have started to turn color and it wont be long before we are in the fields. Corn basis has held mostly steady as of late and bean basis has fallen some. For Iowa, we should see a regular harvest schedule, starting in 10 to 14 days. Have a safe harvest



Unless otherwise noted, the posts on this blog should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. INTL FCStone Inc. is not responsible for any trading decisions taken by persons viewing this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. Reproduction without authorization is prohibited. All rights reserved.

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