Morning Grain Comments, 09/23/2015

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Dec CBOT wheat has steadily pushed higher throughout the overnight session, supporting the grain complex with a move through resistance including the key $5/bushel mark, to a new one-month best. Corn and beans remain generally stuck in the same pattern, with strong harvest results continuing to roll in. The crop outlooks are not as strong for some of the world's key wheat producers, with very little rain seen at this point in a dry forecast for Australia, during a key development phase. The same goes for the Black Sea region, where dry forecasts for both Ukraine and Russia remain problematic for winter wheat planting and development of those key crops.

Jordan has tendered for 50k tonnes of optional-origin hard milling wheat, while an Asian buyer issued a tender for 50k tonnes of Russian wheat delivered to Sri Lanka—12.5% protein for shipment during October.

Ukraine's Ag Ministry cut their 2015 grain production forecast yesterday by half a million tonnes, to 59.5 MMT; grain harvest progress stands at 74%.

Russia's Ag Min reported grain harvest at 77% done as of Monday, with 89 million tonnes in so far (vs 91 MMT LY) and yields running slightly below last year's pace. Total output is seen at 103 MMT, down 2 MMT from LY.

Kazakhstan's Ag Min reported grain exports at 1.18 MMT from July 1 through September 20, up from 1.165 MMT over the same span last year; total '15/16 (July-June) grain exports are seen around 7 MMT, versus 6.444 MMT in '14/15 (though still below 8.68 MMT the previous season). The Ag Min reported 63% of the grain crop harvested to date, or 10.8 MMT.

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