Morning Grain Comments, 09/29/2015

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

The grains again tried the upside early last night but found the going too tough; crop progress numbers wouldn't support a rally at this point in the season, and the next big fundamental release is the quarterly stocks report tomorrow which has been prone to bearish misses in the recent past...

Japan is looking for 128k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender, including 62k from the U.S., and 33k each from Canada and Australia.

The trade is expecting Statistics Canada to increase their wheat and canola production estimates in Friday morning's report; all wheat output is seen at 25.1 MMT, up almost a half a million tonnes from August, though still 15% below last season. The 2015 canola crop is estimated to hit 14.5 MMT, up 1.2 MMT from Aug but still 12% below last season. Corn and soybean production is seen basically steady vs August at 12.3 and 5.8 MMT, respectively.

The national corn harvest advanced eight points this week to 18% done as of Sunday night (9/27), up from 11% last year but still behind the 23% five-year average pace; maturity metrics remained on track with 5YA's and the condition rating was steady again at 68% good/excellent. Soybean harvest was faster, moving from 7% to 21% done, though those ratings lost a point this week to 62% g/ex. Winter wheat planting and emergence remained a bit behind comparable-date LY and 5YA numbers at 31% and 7%, respectively.

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