Morning Grain Comments, 10/02/2015

Friday, October 2, 2015

FCStone's yields yesterday might be setting the tone heading into the USDA S&D—with Informa likely following suit, if history is any indication—for unchanged official yield numbers a week from today, at worst

Jordan bought 100k tonnes of hard milling wheat and 100k tonnes of animal feed barley yesterday, both optional-origin, for Feb-March shipment.

Brazil's Trade Ministry reported September soybean exports at 3.7 MMT, down from 5.16 MMT in August but above 2.67 MMT last Sept. Ethanol exports of 173 mln liters were down from 196 mln LM but above 119 mln LY.

Some Argentine farmers are expected to delay corn planting even more than usual this year, into late this month or even November/December, awaiting presidential election results and possible changes to quotas and tariffs. '15/16 planted area is already seen declining to 2.7 mln hectares, from 3.4 mln LY.

The USDA reported August soy crushings at 4.38 million short tons, or 146.1 mln bu—well above the 142.0 mln bu estimate—in their first report in four years since Census numbers went offline. Estimates ranged from 140.9-142.7 mbu, with NOPA at 135.3 mbu in Aug. USDA crushings came in 6-8% over NOPA for JJA, compared to a historical diff in the 5% range. The USDA also pegged corn used for ethanol at 445.2 mbu in Aug, down from 448.0 mbu in July, while 1.943 MMT of DDGs were created in Aug vs 2.001 MMT in July.

INTL FCStone yesterday pegged the national corn yield at 167.0 bushels per acre, up from 165.9 bpa last month, though still below the USDA's 167.5 bpa. Soybean yields at 46.9 bpa, up a bushel and a half from last month but still below the government's 47.1 bpa September estimate.

Unless otherwise noted, the posts on this blog should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. INTL FCStone Inc. is not responsible for any trading decisions taken by persons viewing this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by INTL FCStone Inc. or its subsidiaries. Reproduction without authorization is prohibited. All rights reserved.

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