Morning Grain Comments, 10/05/2015

Monday, October 5, 2015

Matt Zeller

The grains have gained some strength after a brief dip to start the overnight session, with beans mostly leading the charge since then; the buildup to the USDA S&D will be the week's main story, but boy should we see some big harvest progress numbers in the meantime this afternoon...

Jordan has cancelled a tender to sell 50k tonnes of hard milling wheat due to lack of offers– the cargo was Polish wheat that had been rejected by Jordan's quality control. Another tender will be issued with a closing date of Oct 11.

Iraq has issued an international tender for at least 50k tonnes of wheat.

Egypt's GASC bought 235k tonnes of wheat for Nov 1-10—60k tonnes from Ukraine and 175k tonnes from Russia, at an average price near $200/t C&F.

Stats Canada Friday estimated 2015 wheat production at 26.1 MMT, up from 24.6 MMT in August and the average 25.1 MMT estimate, but still below 29.4 MMT last year; durum & spring wheat both rose 6% from Aug to 19.05 and 4.74 MMT, respectively. Canola output increased 7% from Aug to 14.3 MMT, still down from 16.4 MMT LY and the average 14.5 MMT trade guess

Private analyst Informa Friday cut their corn yield from 168.8 to 168.4 bushels per acre, with production at 13.561 billion bushels—that's still down 24 mbu from the USDA due to lower acreage. Soybean yields rose from 47.0 to
47.2 bpa, with production at 3.878 bln bu—47 mbu below the government, also due to lower acreage (-1.3 mln versus the USDA Sept). Informa's World Crop Report indicated less 2015 corn production in Argentina (20.0 MMT, down 1.5 MMT vs Sept) and Ukraine (24.5 MMT, down 3.5 MMT vs Sept).

Friday afternoon's Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds dropping 7.8k net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday, compared to daily estimates for a net 10k gain on the week; the rest of the grains mostly went with trade guesses for a +10k beans, +13.6k oil, and +9.2k Chi wheat. Producers and merchants mostly liquidated net positions with a –15k corn, -23.2k beans, -17.3k oil, -8.7k Chicago wheat, and –4.8k KC wheat.

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