Morning Grain Comments, 10/07/2015

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

The key contracts are making an interesting run at technical resistance this morning—they may be unwilling to push much further prereport, even though fairly sizeable production and stocks cuts are anticipated.

South Korea's NOFI bought up to 55k tonnes of soymeal today from Brazil or Argentina, for April 1 delivery; they also bought 11k tonnes of copra meal but rejected offers for 12k tonnes of palm kernel and 12k tonnes of rapeseed meal

Russia's Ag Ministry reported the country's grain harvest at 98 million tonnes as of yesterday, from 92% of planted area; that's down from 100 MMT LY.

Colombia approved 2.5 million tonnes of corn for import, due to drought affecting local production; the country generally only produces around 1.7-1.8 MMT of corn per year while it imports 4.4-4.5 MMT annually as of late.



Today's charts show historical corn and soybean yield changes in the September and October USDA Reports, over the last 20 years, along with estimates for Friday's edition thrown in. The last three "big crops" - record yielding years of 2004, 2009, and 2014—all put in Oct gains of at least 2.3 bushels per acre, while the trade is expecting a small setback on Friday. The last three record bean years—2005, 2009, and 2014—all added at least a tenth in Oct as well.

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