Morning Grain Comments, 10/12/2015

Monday, October 12, 2015

Solid overnight trade volume was mostly beneficial to soybeans, but all the grains have appeared to carve out well-defined short-term trading ranges; most are expecting a slow one on this bank/gov't holiday...

Egypt's GASC on Friday bought 180k tonnes of wheat for Nov 11-20, averaging $207/tonne C&F, including 120k from Russia and 60k from Romania.

France's Farm Ministry cut their 2015 corn production estimate by 400k tonnes to 13.1 MMT—now down 28% from last year's 18.1 MMT record— with soft wheat up 200k tonnes to a new record 41.0 MMT (+9% vs LY).

Brazilian government supply agency Conab pegged the country's '15/16 soy crop at 100.1-101.9 MMT, up from 96.2 MMT LY thanks to increased plantings. Brazil's corn output is seen falling to 82.6-83.6 MMT, vs 85.5 MMT LY

Friday afternoon's Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds adding a whopping 54k net corn contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (10/6), against trade expectations for just a +15k net gain; activity was closer to expectations across the rest of the complex with beans up 8.9k and oil & Chi wheat up just over 16k net each. Producers and merchants dumped net positions across the board with corn down over 42k there, beans –11.7k, oil –20.8k, meal –2.5k, Chi wheat –10.3k, and KC –2.9k on the week.


Today's charts show U.S and Brazil soybean production and harvested acreage over the last 20 years (in imperial units); the USDA raised their estimate for 2015/16 Brazilian soybean production by 3 million tonnes (just over 110 mln bu) to an even 100 MMT (3.67 bln bu) - that's still below Friday's official Conab production range which came in slightly above that. BRZ harvested bean area is seen rising for the ninth straight year, to 33.3 mln ha (82.3 mln ac).USDA1

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