Morning Grain Comments, 10/21/2015

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

The soy complex clearly has the edge in a demand sense, with weak overseas prospects there for both corn and wheat, as the trade transitions into the demand phase with massive crops considered more or less "in the bin". SX5 looks like it wants to wrestle with the $9 mark heading into FND...

Jordan cancelled yet another tender yesterday for 100k tonnes of hard wheat, reportedly because the tender failed to get any offers, with exporters having limited interest due to strict tender terms on inspection and payment.

Kazakhstan's Ag Ministry reported grain exports from July 1 to Oct 20 at 1.88 MMT, down from 1.92 MMT over the same span last year; total 2015/16 grain exports are seen reaching 7.0 MMT, up from 6.44 MMT in '14/15. The country's grain harvest is all but done, at 19.8 MMT in bunker (gross) weight, with clean (net) weight expected at 17.3 MMT, up from 17.2 MMT a year ago

Ukraine's Ag Min sees the 2015 grain harvest at 59.5 MMT, right in the middle of their previous 59-60 MMT range, down from 63.8 MMT in 2014.

Chinese customs data showed September DDG imports at 934k tonnes, up 73% from last Sept and 18% above August's 794k, and the third largest single month on record. Sept '15 corn imports of 170k tonnes of were down 72% from Aug, with milo imports up 95% MoM to 1.07 MMT. Sept soy imports came in at 7.255 MMT, up 44% on the year, with cumulative Jan-Sep imports of 59.65 MMT, up 13% from last year's pace. Imports from the U.S. were basically nil in Sept, with shipments from Brazil at 5.13 MMT and ARG at 1.6 MMT. Cumulative Jan-Sept imports from the U.S. are down 2% vs LY at 17.0 MMT, with BRZ up15% to 33.0 MMT and ARG up 50% to 6.9 MMT.

Japanese grain imports of 1.93 MMT in September were down 9% from last year, with grain imports from the U.S. down 5% from LY at 1.49 MMT. Total September soybean imports of 233k tonnes were up 45% from last Sept, with
imports from the U.S. up 84% from LY to 140k tonnes.

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