Morning Grain Comments, 10/23/2015

Friday, October 23, 2015

Quick Editorial: the grains reversed course yesterday on the massive dollar spike; that USD rally continues today but wheat is running against the grain, with key competitor FSU's wheat crop in some danger heading to the winter...

Asian buyers (from Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia) reportedly booked a combined 125k tonnes of U.S. wheat for Dec shipment this week.

South Korea's CJ bought 50k tonnes of Aussia wheat for May delivery.

Ethiopia is looking for one million tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat, with offers due today, and delivery sought in the next four months.

FranceAgriMer estimated the country's corn harvest at 58% done, up 20% from last week and ahead of 32% last year. Soft wheat planting also came in at 58% complete , up from 39% the week prior and ahead of 50% a year ago.

Argentina's Ag Ministry said in their monthly report yesterday that 2015/16 corn plantings will come in at 5.3 million hectares (13.1 million acres), down from 6.0 mln ha (14.8 mln ac) the previous season. Wheat acreage is seen at 4.1 mln ha (10.1 mln ac), compared to 4.0 mln ha (9.9 mln ac) last month.

Traders are expecting South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee to show 2016 corn planting intentions at 2.63 million hectares (6.5 mln ac) in their initial report on Tuesday, slightly below 2.65 mln ha (6.55 mln ac) last year. Last year's drought-affected production was an eight-year low, at 9.94 MMT.

This afternoon's USDA Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show all U.S. cattle on feed as of October 1 at 102.1% of last year, with September placements seen at 95.4% of last year and Sept marketings at 97.5% of LY.


Early-season soybean export data tells two very different stories at this point, with cumulative sales continuing to lag last year by over 270 million bushels through mid-October, despite a stout weekly sale of nearly 75 mbu last week. Meanwhile, physical export indicators continue to gain ground on last year's early pace, with inspections and shipments now 85-90 mbu ahead of LY. The USDA is now looking for a sharp 168-mbu YTY soybean export decline.



Soybean export

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