Morning Grain Comments, 10/26/2015

Monday, October 26, 2015

The grains experienced a strong opening last night but have gone their separate ways since, with only wheat holding on to some decent gains this morning; however even WZ is struggling with resistance at $5/bu, with the complex slogging into the end of the massive harvest month of Oct.

The lowest offer in Ethiopia's tender for a full million tonnes of wheat (closing Friday) came in at $233/tonne C&F—just for 50k tonnes, and likely coming from the Black Sea or E.U. Shipment is sought within four months.

Jordan tendered for 100k tonnes of optional-origin hard wheat; the country's tenders for wheat ended without a purchase throughout the month of October.

South Korea's MFG has issued a tender for up to 120k tonnes of soybean meal, from either U.S., S.A., or China, for May 2016 arrival; the country's CJ Corp also bought 51k tonnes of U.S. wheat for March delivery.

An industry group in India sees soybean output at 7.2 MMT in 2015, down over 15% from last year due to inconsistent rainfall in the top two states.

Soy planting in both Mato Grosso (Brazil's #1 soy state) and the entire country came in near 20% on Friday, up from 13-14% the previous week but more or less in line with last year in both cases, according to multiple analysts.

Friday afternoon's USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of October 1 at 102.3% of last year, above the average 101.8% trade estimate; September placements of 95.9% beat the 93.9% trade guess, while September marketings basically matched the estimate at 97.6% of last year.

Friday afternoon's Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money activity that was once again nowhere near where daily trade estimates had it pegged; corn lost 61.7k net contracts there against just a -3k net expectation, while beans added 2.2k net against –17k net estimates. Meal and oil also found up with sharper longs than expected despite minor moves, while Chi wheat liquidated 38.6k net contracts, with the trade looking for a –11k net there on the week ending last Tuesday (10/20). Producers and merchants subsequently added nearly 39k net corn longs & near 33.5k net Chi wheat longs.


Nov Bean


Today's chart is an update on the November soybean seasonal, including three and five-year averages, along with recent seasons and this year's action so far. SX5 has been trading a pretty tight range since the August USDA report, consolidating towards the $9/bushel level as it heads into first notice day. Last year, SX4 managed an Oct rally to a peak at $10.87 just a couple days before expiration; SX8 had the worst ethanol-era finish, off the board at $8.78/bu.

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