Morning Livestock Report, 11/03/2015

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

The cattle markets began the week with a two-sided trade yesterday, trading lower early in the session before rallying back late. Last week's cash trade volume looks larger than we'd earlier expected and this week's showlist count is reportedly below week-ago levels in all states except CO. Most active December live cattle futures (currently at $141.67) have left a big gap on the chart from $139.55 to $140.05, which also happens to be where the 50 day moving average lies. Chartists would like to see that gap filled, but also targeting that area for longer term support now. Interesting to see some data confirming industry suspicions that retailers have yet to begin lowering prices or aggressively featuring beef despite MUCH weaker wholesale prices over these past two months. For beef trim specifically, wholesale prices are down 25-45% in these past 12 months, but the USDA's most recent retail data showed their average ground chuck price down only 2%! The lag effect between weaker wholesale prices and consumer level benefits may take months....

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