Morning Grain Comments, 11/09/2015

Monday, November 9, 2015

Chicago wheat closed weakly Friday afternoon and continued that nosedive on the open last night; stronger cash bids have the front end of the corn and soybean complexes holding the grains afloat this morning...

Chinese October soybean imports at 5.53 MMT, down 24% from September.

Brazilian Trade Ministry data showed October ethanol imports at 9.6 million liters (2.5 mln gallons), up from 5.6 mln liters in Sept and just 930 liters last October, and all of it from the U.S. Total Jan-Oct imports of 451 mln liters are up 14% from last year's pace, with the majority originating in the U.

Friday afternoon's Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds cutting just over 9k net contracts on the week ending last Tuesday (11/3), compared to daily trade estimates which were indicating a similar-type increase on the week. Friday's trade leaves corn at under a 5k net estimated long. Funds dropped 23.5k net soybean contracts, more than double the loss expected, with meal and oil down 6-7k net on the week. Chicago wheat gained 14.4k net there, a bit more than expected, with KC wheat down 4k net. Producers and merchants subsequently lost near 3k net corn and 9.5k net Chi wheat, but added 22.5k net beans, +14.2k meal, and +5.5k bean oil.

November CBOT deliveries: soybeans 100 contracts, next trade date 10/28.


Today's charts show October and November USDA corn and soybean yield estimate changes, since 1995, along with the average trade guess for tomorrow's report. Another corn yield increase this month would mark the first time since 2005 that yields rose in both Oct and Nov, though those '05 gains were the fifth straight instance of that happening. The last three Oct increases were followed by Nov declines. For beans, these months have been awfully positive in general...



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