Soybean Report, 11/17/2015

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

This bean trade has become a real grinder. With few producer beans being sold, the support comes from a pretty good early export pace that appears poised to fall off the cliff when SA comes back online with beans. That might be before month’s end with Argie bean sales after the election, but for sure in Feb. when early Brazilian beans make it to port. IF the increased SA sales eat into US exports, which seems inevitable, we should add good carry into this spreads. N/X should make it to 12-15, should the previously discussed expectations come to bear. Wider is possible in a worst case scenario for US farmers with SA discounts eating away at US exports. Barring a major unexpected move in currencies to level the playing field and/or a political upset, the US is set to see the wildcard of pent-up selling by the Argie farmer tilt the table to SA sooner and longer than normal this year. The record crush was disappointing as expectations were a couple MB higher. CFTC showed a bigger short than predicted giving the market some footing overnight to attempt to go higher. Low volumes continued and OI had minimal gains across the complex. Look for slightly better to open the day, but we need something to feed the bulls to keep moving higher. Both sides should trade early and direction is sideways for now.

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