Morning Grain Comments, 11/19/2015

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Soybeans experienced a relatively volatile overnight trade session, at least given their current situation—front-end bean volume was strong and action was roller-coaster-like right from the start last night. It finds the spot Jan re-testing contract and spot lows ahead of this morning’s export sales report, with the bulls desperately needing some help from those numbers

Israeli private buyers purchased 80k tonnes of corn and 30k tonnes of feed wheat overnight, both optional-origin; the corn was bought at $179/tonne
C&F for Feb-March-April shipment, with the wheat at $193.50/t for Feb-Mar.

South Korea’s KFA tendered for up to 65k tonnes of optional-origin corn for May arrival.

Japan’s Ag Ministry bought 115k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender, including 81k from the U.S. and 34k from Canada.

Private consultants Strategie Grains this morning pegged 2016/17 European Union wheat plantings at 23.9 million hectares (59.1 mln acres), down 100k ha from last month and now down 1% from last year. Barley and durum wheat acreage are both seen rising from last year, with expected corn acreage steady with last year at 9.3 mln ha (23.0 mln ac) but slightly below the 5YA. Strategie did raise their 2015/16 wheat production estimate this month, from 149.5 to 149.8 MMT, with corn output down from 57.6 to 57.3 MMT. ‘15/16 soft wheat exports gained 300k tonnes this month to 26.8 MMT, still well below last year’s 32.5 MMT, while feed wheat demand inside the bloc dropped from 56.0 to 54.5 MMT.

Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show all U.S. cattle on feed as of November 1 at 102.2% of last year, with October placements and marketings both seen at 96.0% of last year.




Weekly DOE total fuel ethanol production eased a bit last week (on the seven days ending Nov 13) to 975,000 barrels per day, compared to 982k bpd the week prior, but still up from 970k bpd on the comparable week last year. Cumulative output since September 1 is still running at a robust 956k bpd, nearly 40k bpd ahead of last year’s pace through mid-Nov and even 5k bpd ahead of the final 2014/15 pace.

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