Morning Grain Comments, 11/24/2015

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Soybeans took a hit on the open last night following yesterday’s highly-touted bullish reversal, but they’ve gradually recovered since despite a lack of fresh fundamental developments; the chart formation is at least there to take advantage if any supportive information does come along. Wheat is the weakest performer this morning as the trade noted yet another increase in U.S. crop condition ratings—the crop is in good shape heading into winter dormancy as strong Plains precipitation has fallen over the past month, benefitting winter wheat areas along with mild temperatures and a general lack of extreme winter weather.

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2016 corn crop at 25.76 million tonnes, up 12% from 2015 due to larger planted acreage, after drought cut winter wheat plantings. They also expect soybean and sunseed area and production to increase next season, with bean output seen up 30% to 4.92 MMT and sunseeds up 6% to 12 MMT in 2016. The country’s Ag Minister reported the 2015 grain harvest at 59.1 MMT, or 98% complete, with yields slightly lower compared to 2014. The wheat and barley harvests were reported as complete, with corn at 93% done with 21.2 MMT harvested.

The national winter wheat condition rating rose by another point this week to 53% good/excellent, up from the 50% five-year average figure but still below 58% at this point last year. Winter wheat planting came in at 96% done, down
from 99% last year and the 100% five-year average, with emergence at 90% this week, even with the 5YA and a point behind last year’s pace.


U.S. winter wheat condition ratings posted fourth straight weekly rise, from 47% good/excellent in mid-to-late October to 53% g/ex currently. That remains below the last two years—which came in at 58% (2014) and 62% (2013), respectively, though those two years managed to put up the two worst final yields since 2007. Major states KS and OK are basically in line now with their 5YA ratings, with the rest of the HRWW states above or well-above average also.



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