Morning Grain Comments, 12/04/2015

Friday, December 4, 2015

Soybeans paused overnight after a strong couple of weeks, with the dollar predictably taking back some of its massive losses; the trade doesn't see next week’s USDA S&D changes amounting to much either...

France’s Ag Ministry is estimating winter soft wheat plantings at 5.22 million hectares (12.9 mln acres) in their first official estimates for the 2016 crop, up 1.5% from last year and again the highest level in 80 years. Meanwhile, analysts FranceAgriMer pegged 98% of that soft wheat crop as good or excellent, above 93% on the same date last year, with 97% of the crop emerged.

Russian customs reported Jan-Oct wheat exports at 16.1 million tonnes, down from 18.1 MMT a year ago; the country announced that they would not ban exports to Turkey, while Ukraine stated that they are ready to double or triple exports of corn, wheat, and sunflower oil to Turkey if Russia restricts supplies

Private analysts Informa yesterday increased their 2015 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 400k tonnes to 101.4 MMT, while reducing BRZ corn 500k tonnes to 81.3 MMT, due to their planting surveys finding more expected soybean acreage and less corn. Meanwhile, Argentine bean output lost half a million tonnes this month to 58.5 MMT while ARG corn rose 2.5 MMT to 21.0 MMT. They had to raise their 2015 Australian wheat estimate by a
million tonnes to match ABARES’ 24.0 MMT, while the USDA remains up at 26.0 MMT in that department after a million-tonne cut in last month’s S&D


Corn export sales fell sharply from the near one-year best 80.2 mln bu on the week ending 11/19 to under 20 mbu last week; despite the holiday, that figure was still less than half the comparable 46.1 mbu last year. Corn shipments came in right about half the same week LY at 14.7 mbu. Cumulative sales of 672 mbu stand 223 mbu behind last year’s pace, with shipments of 263 mbu now 102 mbu behind LY, with the USDA expecting just a 64 mbu YTY export decline.



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