Wheat Report, 12/04/2015

Friday, December 4, 2015

Buyers lifted the market on Thursday, as the USD plummeted on news that the European Central Bank is extending its QE and not increasing monthly purchases. Funds knocked 9k contracts off the CME wheat short, taking the net position to 57k contracts short. The extended forecast shows increased chances of precipitation for the Plains in the 6-10 day range. French winter soft wheat plantings are estimated at 5.22 mil hectares in ’16, an 80-year high, and the crop is 98% g/e condition. Russia announced it will not cut off exports to Turkey, and Ukraine is ready to triple grain exports, if Russia implements any restrictions. StatsCanada released December production estimates, raising all wheat production; raising spring and durum, and slightly lowering winter wheat. The USD is reversing course this morning up 700bp, and the jobs report showed an increase of 211k in Nov. and leaving unemployment unchanged. Grains are starting mostly steady, but look for the prices to struggle to maintain the rally on continued USD strength.

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