Morning Grain Comments, 12/07/2015

Monday, December 7, 2015

Chicago wheat posted strong volume during a gap higher last night; fundamental support remains thin and U.S. exports uncompetitive, but higher trade is the path of least resistance for the front end of the complex...

Strategie Grains raised sees 2016 E.U. oilseed output increasing thanks to higher plantings and yields, with rapeseed production expected up slightly to 21.77 MMT, sunseeds up 9% to 8.4 MMT, and soybeans up 18% to 2.4 MMT

Safras & Mercado pegged ‘15/16 BRZ soy at 100.4 MMT, down from 100.5 MMT previously, with corn seen at 89.3 MMT, versus 88.6 MMT last month

Statistics Canada on Friday pegged the country’s 2015 all wheat production at 27.6 million tonnes, up from 26.1 MMT in Oct and well above the average 26.7 MMT trade estimate, though still below 29.4 MMT in 2014. Production of other crops also came in above Oct figures and average trade guesses, including canola at 17.2 MMT (vs just 14.3 MMT in Oct and the 15.6 MMT est) and corn at 13.6 MMT (vs 12.2 MMT in Oct and the 12.4 MMT guess).

Friday afternoon’s Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money funds adding 24k net corn contracts on the week ending Tuesday, versus trade estimates for +15k net; Chi wheat lost over 30k net in that category, double the expected loss. The rest of the complex wound up fairly near trade expectations, though, including beans up 20.4k net and oil up 18.9k net. Swap dealers also added 43.5k net corn to go over +300k net overall, while producers and merchants dropped a net 66k corn on the week. Beans and oil each lost over 20k net there, with meal down 3.5k net and Chi wheat up 21k net contracts.


Statistics Canada on Friday pumped up production estimates for all their major crops, with output of the six largest crops (listed below) now totaling 76.3 MMT in 2015; that would have been a clear record output by more than 1% over last year, if it wasn't for the 2013 outlier, when nearly 90 MMT was harvested. 2015 wheat output at 27.6 MMT stands as the fourth-largest in the last 20 years, down from 29.4 MMT last year and the massive 37.5 MMT in 2013


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