Morning Grain Comments, 12/08/2015

Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Soybeans dominated trade volume and actually gained nearly a nickel right away last night, but they’re safely on the low side this morning, facing some serious headwinds from South American for any rally attempt...

Japan is looking for 119k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender, including 53k tonnes from the U.S., 30k from Canada, and 36k AUS.

China’s statistics bureau today reported total 2015 grain output at 621 million tonnes, up 2.4% from 2014 and the 12th straight record grain harvest; corn production came in at 224.6 MMT, up 4% from 2014’s 215.7 MMT harvest and in line with the USDA’s current 225 MMT estimate, though below the CNGOIC’s September 229 MMT guess. Wheat production at 130.2 MMT was up from 126 MMT last year; that’s also in line with the current USDA estimate of 130.0 MMT.

Chinese customs data reported November soybean imports at 7.39 MMT, up 23% from last year, with cumulative Jan-Nov bean imports of 72.6 MMT marking more than a 15% increase from last year’s pace. Shanghai JCI sees December bean imports increasing even further, to over 8 MMT. Total grain imports hit 2.17 MMT in Nov with total Jan-Nov imports of 30.6 MMT still beating last year’s pace by nearly 79%.


Corn export inspections rebounded this week to 19.4 million bushels, up from 13.1 mbu last week but still below
19.5 mbu the week prior, while wheat inspections fell to a five-week low at 8.3 mbu and soybean inspections hit a nine-week bottom at 63.2 mbu. The combined threecommodity total of just under 89 mbu was the lowest since Oct 1, down 48 mbu from the mid-Oct seasonal inspections peak this year , and 23 mbu behind the same week last year.


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