Soybean Report, 12/10/2015

Thursday, December 10, 2015

The report was as expected, a non-event. The US$ dropped a good amount, yet no real love was felt in the bean complex. The reality is we are still at an elevated value for the US$ that will impede progress on adding exports. As long as SA has beans to offer, the US farmer is tilting against windmills when hoping for higher values. End users are not in a hurry to book forwards, at least not in a big way. With a minimal carry though, it might not be a bad idea. Oil was the only component that had an interesting note or two in the report as carry out was reduced on added biofuel usage. To me that is doubtful with the current state of oil, UNLESS we see bean oil values crater to allow for profitable blending of bio-diesel. With the shortage of palm oil created by el Nino, that doesn’t seem that likely presently. Basis is steady to feeling a tad better. Spreads indicate movement is not heavy and crushers and exporters still need beans in the post- and some in the preholiday period. Exports were above expectations for beans and meal and in range for oil. Still it did little to rally futures prior to the break. Look for a shot to trade and close higher, but a mixed to lower trade seems just as likely.

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