Morning Grain Comments, 12/16/2015

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Grain trade volume was actually fairly strong overnight but price action seemed to reach a new level of malaise; soybeans may be unwilling to continue carving out new move lows until crucial rains verify early next week for key northern Brazilian soy areas.

Israeli private buyers purchased about 80k tonnes of corn this morning, optional- origin at $177/tonne C&F for M/A/M shipment; they passed on a tender for up to 20k tonnes of optional-original sorghum for March shipment.

Japan’s Ag Ministry bought 24k tonnes of feed wheat and 28k tonnes of feed barley in an SBS tender this week, for up to 120k and 200k, respectively.

Tunisia tendered yesterday for up to 100k tonnes of soft wheat and 50k tonnes of feed barley, for J-F-M; the lowest offer today came at $196.50/tonne C&F.


Russia’s Ag Ministry is estimating 2016 grain production at 100.8 million tonnes, down from about 104 MMT this year, with wheat output seen at 58.6 MMT in the coming season, down from 61.2 MMT in 2015, while corn production
was pegged at 10.98 MMT, down from 12.4 MMT in 2015.

The Baltic Dry Freight Index—the main tracking rate for ships carrying dry commodities—fell to a new all-time low yesterday at 484 points, down nearly 5% on the day and exceeding previous lows from about a month ago at 498 points. It’s the lowest number on record since data began in January 1985.

November NOPA soybean crush came in at 156.1 million bushels yesterday morning, down from 158.9 mbu last month and a November record 161.2 mbu last year; it also fell below the average 161.7 mbu trade guess as well as the entire 157.7-161.2 million bushel trade estimate range.


November NOPA crush disappointed yesterday at 156.1 million bushels; the drop from 158.9 mbu in October was the first Oct-Nov decline since 2010. Thanks to the large year-over-year increase from September, though, cumulative Sep-Nov NOPA crush still stands 23 mbu ahead of last year’s pace; that 5+% increase still looks pretty strong in comparison to a USDA total bean crush estimate that expects less than a 1% year-to-year improvement in 2015/16.


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