Soybean Report, 12/23/2015

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

The market is in the holiday doldrums and is seeing light volume with decreasing OI. The Jan. contracts are fading fast and we still have 5 trading sessions until first notice day positions are finalized. Jan. option expiration is tomorrow.
That should relieve some more OI. F/H spread trading even money this am as we break. The overall market is in sideways consolidating movement. Beans have a slight bull inflection while products are bearish in tenor. SA weather is not perfect, so some bulls will still be bellowing about a smaller crop size. US demand will be an issue that USDA will begin to shed some light on when the next report comes out as S/D tables as well as stocks report will likely indicate a slowdown in crush is taking place or imminent. The domestic demand to me is the bigger issue, but Chinese demand does not appear to be keeping pace with expectations either. Hogs and pigs report out this p.m. should show continued growth, which would help demand. Poultry ramp up for egg layers has been slower than expected, as has the return to full turkey production. If these two can get up to speed, that will help. Look for both sides to trade today with a lower bias into the close, but goofy things can happen when so few are participating in the market on holidays.

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