Morning Grain Comments, 12/28/2015

Monday, December 28, 2015

All things considered, the upset this morning would be corn and wheat trading on the high side, but that looks like a chart-driven move; more fundamentally, beans were left with no choice but to continue the weak trend as northern BRZ forecasts suddenly look much better to start the week.

South Korea’s NOFI bought 195k tonnes of corn from either the U.S. or South America, along with 69k tonnes of optional-origin feed wheat, in tenders closing late last week—all for M-J-J 2016 arrival. The corn was priced around $181/tonne C&F, with the wheat near $185/tonne C&F.

Bangladesh has issued a tender for up to 50k tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat for Jan-Feb delivery; the country has had some quality issues in recent import deals, including buying a 200k-tonne lot of Brazilian wheat that was alleged to be below standard, and rejecting three shipments of a total of 125k tonnes of French wheat that didn't match tender specifications.



Dalian corn futures fell in early-week trade, cutting off profits from the recent O-N-D rally as signals from the government indicate that sales of the massive corn stockpile (seen at over 200 MMT) may be sped up—possibly starting right after the Chinese new year holiday in early Feb, 2-3 months earlier than usual. The gov’t did say that corn acreage will be cut next year, however.

Russia’s Economic Development Ministry said preliminary data indicated the country’s 2015 grain harvest at 104.3 million tonnes, down 1% from last year.


Weekly bean export sales returned to the highest level since mid-October, at 76.0 million bushels this week—that was
more than 50 mbu above the comparable week last year, taking cumulative sales to just 166.5 mbu behind last year’s pace. Meanwhile, shipments were steady at 59.5 mbu this week but that once again lagged last year’s 85.8 mbu; cumulative shipments are now over 100 mbu behind last year’s pace, with the USDA at a –128 mbu entire-year drop.




Solid precip affected over half of Brazil’s corn and soybean areas over the weekend, with 0.25-1.5” rains seen in parts of Mato Grosso and surroundings as well; better chances are on the way this week into the 6-10 day period as well, with 6-10 day maps favoring northern areas as well. Some are calling for 2-4” rains across much of the driest Brazilian soy area late this week into next week. Less active patterns are likely for the wettest southern areas through the extended forecasts also. Argentina was hot & dry over the weekend, but temps are seen easing mid-week with rains becoming more active.

Plenty of precip fell in the southern Plains over the weekend, whether it was rain or snow; that system will move out today and allow for a drier week and 6-10 day time frame, though some precipitation moves back into the far south and southwestern HRWW areas by the 11-15 day time frame.


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