Morning Grain Comments, 12/29/2015

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Beans (despite a hugely beneficial BRZ forecast) and wheat have found some support from yesterday’s lows at least for now, while corn interestingly has not followed suit by squeaking out fresh lows; all fundamental support continues to look fleeting in the current production environment...

South Korea’s KFA is looking for 65k tonnes of optional-origin corn for June.

UkrAgroConsult increased their 2016 Ukraine winter wheat production estimate today, from 17.5 to 17.8 million tonnes on larger planted area; that still leaves the crop behind last season’s 23.4 MMT harvest.

Private analyst Dr. Michael Cordonnier yesterday left his South American corn and soybean production estimates unchanged (including BRZ beans at 97.0 MMT), with lower biases for Brazilian crops (though beneficial rains are seen in the next 10-14 days) and positive leanings for Argentina at this point.

Yesterday afternoon’s Disaggregated CFTC Report showed managed money traders dumping contracts across the grain complex on the week ending last Tuesday (12/22), in most cases well more than expected; they cut 41.9k corn on the week compared to daily trade estimates indicating just a 14k net loss, while Chicago wheat lost 19.5k net versus estimates for a 10k net loss. Soybeans only lost 6.5k net in that category but that was in comparison to an expected 17k net gain on the week. Meanwhile, producers and merchants added 30.7k net corn contracts and over 12k each in bean oil and Chi wheat, while gaining 2.3k net in soybeans and losing 2.3k net in meal on the week to 12/22


Soybean export inspections fell slightly this week at 51.5 million bushels, down from 53.8 mbu the previous week
and 55.2 mbu on the comparable week last season; that takes cumulative soybean inspections through right at about one-third of the marketing year to 958 mbu, now down over 123 mbu (-11%) from last year’s pace, with the USDA looking for a –128 mbu (-7%) entire-year bean export drop.



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