After trading higher yesterday, March corn closed 3 ½ lower, with funds selling 5,000 contracts on the day. There are no major market drivers and certainly nothing bullish. The closing of 76 miles of the Mississippi River is probably the biggest item. Dozens of towns along the river are being evacuated. Export sales were out this morning at 705 TMT, within the range of 600 to 800. Ethanol production was reported yesterday at 992,000 bpd up 19,000 barrels from the previous week. Stocks were 20.166 MB, down 221,000 barrels. Resistance in CH is $3.66 and then $3.71. Support is $3.57 and then $3.47. Although export sales within the range of expectations, we are still 25% last year’s pace and not expecting to come close to catching up. This along with ethanol demand being reduced due to cheap milo substitutions, could increase carryout in corn another 100 MB. China market actions by reducing reserve selling prices could hurt demand even more adding pressure to the market. Happy New Year? We are still looking for an increase in commercial buying as we get to the end of the year and some of the selling dries up. Look for a quiet – choppy trade with regular hours.
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