Soybean Report, 01/07/2016

Thursday, January 7, 2016

The world has caught an economic virus and commodities are far from immune to it. Even some $US weakness isn’t enough to stem the tide from going out or more appropriately right now, down. SA offers are showing up in the cash trade for LH Feb. and Mar. that well undercut current values for US FOB prices. The weather in SA is pushing ideas back to or above 100 MMT in Brazil while Arg. is pegged in the 60 MMT area. US carry out is sure to be increased next week by USDA as we see another weak effort to meet USDA projections in export bookings today. Beans were in range, but woefully behind what is needed to get ahead of the monster crop that will nearly shut off US exports by spring planting. Meal is the combo punch to the gut and failed miserably. Oil was almost non-existent, but with lowered expectations on crush it is the one component that has a bullish tint to it, albeit ever so slightly bullish. Bird flu has taken one Chinese woman’s life and Vietnam and Hong Kong are taking precautions to prevent the spread. OI continues to increase across the complex and vol. is picking up as well. USDA did announce another China sale this morning of 246 TMT. Look for lower values and the hitting stops in the lower 840s should we get that low.

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