Morning Grain Comments, 01/12/2016

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Conab cut their production estimate this morning but they’re still awfully optimistic, with most BRZ areas either in good shape or watching beneficial conditions aiding crops this month. Most expect the USDA to cement this bearish environment with unchanged number at best this morning...

Conab cut their official Brazilian soybean estimate this month, though still only from 102.5 to 102.1 million tonnes; meanwhile, total corn production for 2015/16 rose to 82.3 MMT, up from 82.0 MMT in December.

Private farm institute IMEA estimated 30% of Mato Grosso’s soybean crop in “bad” or “terrible” condition, improved from 43% in December; they did forecast a 27.8 MMT state crop this month, down from 28.0 MMT in Dec.

Private analyst Dr. Michael Cordonnier said he’s expecting a 30-40% increase in Argentine corn acreage next year (‘16/17), initially at the expense of soy, but he sees plantings for both eventually increasing annually. ARG acreage
was expected to lose 20% or so this year, but late additional plantings following yhis fall’s regime and policy changes could have total acreage unchanged.

United Kingdom customs data showed 137k tonnes of wheat exported in November, down from 195k tonnes in October, but still above imports which came in at 82k tonnes, the lowest monthly total so far this season. Cumulative exports since July 1 stand at 655k tonnes, compared to 660k in imports.

Jan CBOT deliveries: soyoil 120 contracts and 1/8/16; beans 215 & 12/30/15.


Weekly soybean export inspections fell to their lowest level since October 1st this week at 45.7 million bushels, down from 59.7 mbu the previous week and 68.6 mbu on the comparable week last year. Cumulative soybean inspections stand at 1067 mbu, easily the second-quickest pace on record through 19 weeks, but now a full 135 mbu behind last year—more than the 128 mbu decline that the USDA is currently forecasting for the entire 2015/16 marketing year.



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