Morning Grain Comments, 01/22/2016

Friday, January 22, 2016

It had been rumored that Brazil would have to do something to resolve local corn shortages, with old-crop stocks being exported rapidly and the new crop still developing; the country’s Ag Minister announcing (on twitter, no less) some stocks help is proof that, as has often been the case, all global demand issues are not immediately resolved by massive S.A. crops...

Brazil’s Ag Minister said the country would auction off 500k tonnes of corn from government stocks in order to ease the mounting domestic shortage.

Egypt’s GASC yesterday bought 235k tonnes of wheat for delivery from Feb 20 through March 1, including 115k from Russia and 60k each from France and Romania, all priced in the $188-190/tonne C&F range.

The Buenos Aires Exchange pegged ARG soy production at 58.0 MMT (up from the USDA’s 57.0 MMT) in their first official estimate, while raising wheat output from 10.1 to 10.3 MMT this month. Meanwhile, the Argentine government increased their own wheat estimate from 10.9 to 11.0 MMT, while bumping up corn planted area from 5.40 to 5.69 mln ha (14.1 mln ac).

The International Grains Council sees 2015/16 ending grain stocks at their highest level in 29 years at 455 million tonnes, up one million this month and above 447 MMT a year ago. The IGC did cut global ‘15/16 corn production by 8 MMT this month to 959 MMT, while wheat rose 5 MMT to 731 MMT.

Farm Futures magazine yesterday released results of their producer survey estimating 2016 U.S. corn plantings at 89.5 million acres, up from Informa’s latest 88.9 mln but still a million below the USDA baseline; bean acreage was seen at 82.2 mln ac, three million below Informa and 400k below the USDA.

The Baltic Dry Freight Index hit yet another new record low yesterday at 355 points, down another three points on the day and its 13th straight record low.

Today’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report is expected to show all U.S. cattle as of Jan 1 at 99.0% of last year, or 10.52 million head; December placements are estimated at 95.6% of last year, with Dec marketings seen at 101.9% of LY.


Weekly DOE ethanol production fell off this week, tom 983,000 barrels per day on the seven days ending last Friday (Jan 15), compared to 1003k bpd the previous week, though still slightly ahead of 979k bpd on the comparable week last year. That leaves cumulative production since Sept 1 at 971k bpd, nearly 30k bpd ahead of last year’s pace at this point and 20k bpd ahead of last year’s final figure.



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