Soybean Report, 02/02/2016

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Beans are attempting to make a rally or maybe a final stand prior to the SA crop harvest really getting started and exports cranked up. We are in day 2 of the USDA initial crop insurance pricing period, it ends on the added day for leap year. US crush came in just slightly below expectations. Not an ominous sign, but not a bullish one either. Crush so far has kept within reach of expectations, the bigger question will come in 2 months when SA crushers can crank up from a bountiful harvest. Weather looks pretty beneficial, if not now in the near future in SA. US is prepping for if not in the midst of a winter storm that could slow movement of farm to market beans for a bit. Inspections yesterday were decent, but a continuing pattern of less than before points to another drop in export numbers in the next USDA report a week from today. Spreads strengthened a bit yesterday and held steady overnight. May forwards should see weakness after we proceed past the delivery period for March as SA bean availability and US producer movement for cash flow should provide enough supply to the US demand situation. Low volume day yesterday interestingly enough added to beans and oil OI and dropped meal OI. Look for both sides to trade early and outside factors playing a key role in losses should they mount.

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