Morning Grain Comments, 02/03/2016

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Wheat can’t get out of its own range lately but corn and beans have preferred the positive side so far this month; that coincides with a reversed US$ trend since the end of Jan as well. It’s not looking good for any bulls hoping for further South American weather/production support, though.

South Korea’s MFG bought 65k tonnes of feed wheat from Argentina today, at just under $180/tonne C&F for March shipment.

Taiwan’s flour millers bought 41,300 tonnes of U.S. milling wheat today, for shipment in the first half of April, priced at $221 and $234/tonne C&F.

Egpyt’s GASC yesterday said they were in talks to directly import 3 million tonnes of wheat, declining to say which country it would be sourced from; this followed their failed tender with no offers coming in yesterday morning. Egypt’s Ag Ministry did say that they would allow wheat imports with up to 0.05 percent of the common ergot fungus—the generally accepted international level—rather than use a zero tolerance policy as some had feared. Traders are still skeptical that the ergot issue was the entire problem in their recent tenders/imports/rejections...

A Reuters survey of 10 traders and analysts expects Statistics Canada to report the country’s all-wheat stocks at 21.8 million tonnes as of December 31, in their report on Thursday morning; that would be down 15% on the year and the smallest stockpile in three years. Canola stocks are seen at 11.5 MMT, down 9% from the end of calendar 2014.


Today’s chart shows total soybean exports to China from the three major global suppliers, since the start of the 2013/14 U.S. soybean marketing year. February generally marks the month when Brazil starts to cut into the U.S. share—Informa is expecting BRZ shipments to China to edge out U.S. exports this month—and they peak in March/ April, while Argentine exports usually top out in May/June.


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