Morning Grain Comments, 02/04/2016

Thursday, February 4, 2016

Brazil’s government cut their soybean production figure this morning but their crop estimates are still on the optimistic ends of their respective trade ranges—well above levels of some prior private concerns...

Jordan tendered for 100k tonnes of hard wheat and 100k tonnes of feed barley

Algeria reportedly bought 450-500k tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in a tender this week, at around $178/tonne C&F for April-May shipment; they wheat was likely sourced from both France and the United Kingdom.

Japan bought 141k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender this week, including 71k from the U.S. and around 35k from CAN and AUS.

Pakistan purchased 66k tonnes of BRZ soy and 55k tonnes of CAN canola.

Brazil’s Conab cut their official 2015/16 soybean production estimate from 102.1 to 100.9 MMT due to lower yields in Mato Grosso—that’s still on the high end of the current trade estimate range. Total ‘15/16 corn output was increased by a million tonnes to 83.3 MMT this month.

The FAO’s world food price index fell from 153.4 points in December to 150.4 points in January, down 16% from Jan 2015 and a near seven-year low. The agency raised their 2015 world cereal output estimate slightly to 2.531 billion tonnes, though that’s still just over one percent below the 2014 crop.

South Africa’s largest producer group Grain SA lowered their 2016 corn import estimate from 5.0 to 3.8 MMT, following their government’s higher-than -expected initial production estimate (at 7.44 MMT) last week


Private analysts Informa yesterday increased their South American corn production estimates, with Brazil’s 2015 crop up 300k this month and Argentina up a full 4 MMT in 2015 (to 26 MMT) and up 2 MMT in 2016 (to 30 MMT). They also increased some key wheat output forecasts, with India up 2 MMT to 87.0 MMT for 2016, and China up 5 MMT to 130.0 MMT for 2016. Meanwhile, Informa reduced Brazilian 2015 production by 900k tonnes (still at 100.5 MMT), with Argentina up 1.5 MMT this year to 60.0 MMT, but down 1.5 MMT next year to 56.0 MMT due to increased corn planted acreage.


Today’s chart shows Argentine corn versus soybean production for nearly the last 30 years, with private analyst Informa’s latest 2015/16 and 2016/17 estimates added on. Informa pumped up their ARG corn production for this year and next by a combined 6 MMT this month, estimating output to reach the 30 MMT mark next season, nearly doubling in just eight years, with soybeans expected to decline for the second straight year (from the ‘14/15 record of 61.4 MMT).



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