February 8 – The European forecast model releases a monthly update looking deep into the future. This morning’s monthly release provided a look into the critical pollination month of July. The outlook is actually a compilation of many ensemble members, with forecasters looking for tendencies where the members tend to cluster.
There’s obviously still a great deal of variation in the forecast models this far out. However, it’s interesting to note that just 18% called for a normal to cool-biased outlook for the nation’s mid-section in July, while the remainder leaned warmer – consistent with most forecasts to this point. On the other hand, 70% of the ensemble members were biased toward a wet month of July for the Midwest, with just 30% biased toward a drier-than-normal outcome.
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