Morning Grain Comments, 02/10/2016

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

the U.S. dollar is hanging up above yesterday’s session lows just like the grains; it’s been an ugly month for the USD index but that hasn't done much for the grain market, where U.S. supplies continue to get throttled in the global export marketplace and annual export estimates fall further...

Jordan made no purchase in their international tender for 100k tonnes of optional- origin milling wheat; they’ll re-issue another closing next Tuesday.

Japan’s Ag Ministry received no offers for feed wheat or barley in a regular SBS tender closing today, for up to 120k and 200k tonnes, respectively.

Russia will ban imports of corn and soybeans from the U.S. starting February 15, due to phytosanitary reasons; Russia has imported nearly 400k tonnes of U.S. beans so far this marketing year but have no further sales on the books,
so they’ll likely turn to South America for the remainder of the season. Total soybean imports from the U.S. totaled 317k tonnes in 2014/15 and 450k tonnes of in 2013/14, while Russia generally does not import any corn from the U.S. regardless.

The USDA raised the 2015/16 U.S. corn carryout by another 35 million bushels this month (to 1837 mbu), its fourth straight monthly stocks rise now totaling +276 mbu since September. It is interesting to note that we are still basically even with the February estimate for last year’s crop (1827 mbu), and that estimate went on to lose 100 mbu to get to current “final” levels. Beans’ current 450 mbu is right in the center of the 425-475 mbu range put on paper since June.


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