Morning Grain Comments, 02/11/2016

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Saying the grains face outside market headwinds would be an understatement today; the dollar index has been weaker this month but provided little support, though crude action is worth watching as it re-approaches January lows. The market desperately needs to see some better export sales data, particularly following last week’s surprise net soybean cancellation.

United Kingdom customs figures showed December wheat exports at 251k tonnes, up from 201k tonnes in Nov and the highest monthly total since the start of the 2015/16 marketing season in July. Spain was their largest customer at 111k tonnes, followed by Algeria at 49k and the Netherlands at 30kt.

A USDA attaché report from China estimates total ‘15/16 ending grain stocks at more than 250 MMT (specifically 258 MMT), following more record corn, wheat, and rice crops in 2015—that would make up roughly half the world’s reserves in those commodities. However, they mention sketchy government data suggesting grain stocks could actually run up to as much as 400 MMT...

France’s Farm Ministry yesterday left their 2016 winter wheat planted area unchanged at 5.20 million hectares (12.85 mln acres), up just over one percent from last year, 4.5% above the 5YA, and the largest acreage in 80 years.

In addition to a production rebound to 969k barrels per day on the week ending February 5, the DOE yesterday reported record U.S. ethanol stocks at 22.956 million barrels, up a whopping 600k on the week and above the previous record 22.7 mln barrels in March 2012.


Total U.S fuel ethanol production rebounded to 969,000 barrels per day on the week ending February 5, following three straight weekly declines; it has followed a similar seasonal pattern as last year and this week beat out last year’s comparable 961k bpd figure. Production continued to decline last year to a bottom at 887k bpd in May. Cumulative output since Sept 1 remains at 970k bpd, compared to last year’s 946k bpd pace and 951k bpd final crop year figure.


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