Morning Grain Comments, 02/12/2016

Friday, February 12, 2016

Grain volume was strong overnight, but the bulk of that came in front-end corn which was the least exciting performer; the overall marketplace does seem to have a bit more positive spin this morning, despite the general lack of U.S. involvement in the competitive global export market.

The Korean Feed Association rejected all offers in their tender for up to 130k tonnes of optional-origin corn for July arrival due to high prices, with the lowest offer coming in at $182/tonne C&F, and most at $184-185/tonne C&F.

India received seven bids in their corn import tender last week for 240k tonnes, ranging from $195-221.50/tonne C&F.

Egypt’s GASC is tendering for wheat today for March 10-20; they cancelled their previous two tenders, with no offers coming in the first and four for the second as confusion reigned over ergot fungus policies. This time they have five offers, the lowest coming from France (FOB only) at $185.25/tonne.

Russia’s Ag Ministry yesterday said they’d like to keep their wheat export duty as a safety regulation measure, but would like to see it “at or near zero”.

Federal Reserve Banks in St. Louis, Kansas City, and Chicago yesterday reported reduced farm incomes and subsequent surging demand for bank loans, extensions, and renewals among U.S. farmers in the fourth quarter of 2015, expected to continue/worsen in 2016. The USDA had projected earlier in the week that 2016 farm incomes would fall 3% to $54.8 billion. Fed surveys found regional cropland values down anywhere from 2-4% in Q4 2015.

Corn export sales dropped to a five-week low (and the third -lowest total of the marketing year so far) at 15.9 million bushels this week, down from 44.5 mbu last week and almost 40 mbu on the comparable week last year. Cumulative sales of 970 mbu are now over 335 mbu behind last year’s pace through well under half the 2015/16 marketing season, with the USDA only estimating a 214-mbu entire-year drop even after their 50 mbu export estimate decline this month.


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