Morning Grain Comments, 02/17/2016

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

The U.S. dollar index is steady this morning after its recent rally, which soybeans have paid no heed to anyway; the grains are effectively trading a Tuesday session during this short holiday week, with corn barely moved (less than a one-cent range across the complex!) despite decent overnight volume. Fresh fundamental news is likely few and far between today.

Egypt rejected yet another grain shipment yesterday, this time a small (8k tonnes) vessel of spring wheat from Canada, due to the ergot fungus; the country’s Ag Ministry then said today it would permit an ergot tolerance level of up to 0.05% in wheat imports. That supposedly matches what the Supply Ministry had stated, with the Ag Min before likely at a zero tolerance level— the two bodies finally got together and verbally stated their common standard.

Argentina’s Ag Ministry reported a 57% rise in grain exports in the time frame from December 21 through January 31—3.36 MMT of grain combined— due to the government elimination/reduction of export duties.

NOPA January soybean crush came in at 150.5 mbu yesterday morning, down from the average 155.3 mbu estimate and below even the lowest 153.8 mbu trade guess, and down from 157.7 mbu in Dec and 162.7 mbu last January.

Traders are expecting Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report to show all U.S. cattle as of February 1 at 99.9% of last year, or 10.699 million head; trade estimates ranged from 99.2-102.2%. January cattle placements are seen at 99.0% of last year, with marketings at 98.4% of last January.


Yesterday was a tale of the two sides of the soybean demand equation, with export inspections rebounding pretty impressively (thanks to China) to the highest weekly total since November, at 64.7 mbu; that beat the comparable week last year by over 15 mbu to take a chunk of out of the large YTY inspections lag. Meanwhile, crush disappointed at a four-year Jan low 150.5 mbu, though cumulative crush (750 mbu Sep-Jan) remains right on track with the USDA.



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