Soybean Report, 02/26/2016

Friday, February 26, 2016

The lower sentiment continues today. While both sides should see action, the overall feeling is negative. OI took a hit yesterday again, this time it appears liquidation. Good vol. day across the complex. Products are pretty evenly balanced in OI. Long oil positions are still the best bullish bet in the complex, IMO. As we approach first position day on Fri. we have seen the spread add carry as it relaxed and producer movement has allowed basis to fade. Gulf shipments are on a trajectory lower. The question is whether or not the landing will be a crash. It feels like one is in the offing to me. The deferred spreads should definitely see weakening with each passing week. Some minor adjustments are being made to SA crop, but Brazil so far looks like a 99-100 MMT crop. Arg. Should not lose any bushels either unless we see too much rain moving forward and honestly, that seems like it could happen. Look for lower prices to overwhelm any bounces to the plus side.

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