Wheat is continuing Monday’s rally on dry weather building after this week, but the initial 14 cent surge yesterday lost steam and KC May only closed 5 higher. Funds liquidated 5k contracts of the CBOT short position due to concerns over a cold weather pattern moving through the Midwest this week. Extended forecasts are showing warmer temperatures and below normal precipitation for the HRW growing areas for the 6-10 & 8-14 day ranges. Export inspections were at the low end of estimates at 327 TMT for the week, still trailing the pace needed to attain USDA estimates. NASS will resume crop condition reports next Monday, but state reports showed improvements to TX (48% g/e) and CO (51% g/e), KS was down 1% (56% g/e) and OK (63% g/e) was unchanged. Of note: KS is 30% jointed, OK is 45% jointed and TX is 5% headed. Look for weather concerns to be the driver for wheat, but the focus will shift to the expected bearish USDA reports later in the week.
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