Morning Grain Comments, 03/30/2016

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

The grain market is at least temporarily stalled out ahead of tomorrow’s key USDA reports, neither of which is expected to be seen as anything besides bearish by the trade as usual. However, a plummeting U.S. dollar is keeping outside market support under the grains this week, thanks to Fed Chair Yellen’s loose language regarding future interest rate possibilities.

Japan’s Ag Ministry is seeking 120k tonnes of feed wheat and 200k tonnes of feed barley in a regular SBS auction next Friday; they skipped the tender this week. Loading is sought by July 31 with arrival in Japan by September 30.

Argentine traders don’t see southern Brazilian corn import needs lasting beyond the start of the winter harvest in the second half of this year; this after a poultry processor bought 90k tonnes in recent days and traders last week said imports of 250k tonnes were lined up for delivery by May. That would still be the largest imports since 2001, when BRZ imported 321k tonnes from ARG.

Today’s charts show historical March 1 corn and soybean stocks over the last 30 years, with average trade estimates for tomorrow’s report thrown in. If realized, the trade guess at 7.8 billion bushels of corn would edge out last year for the highest 3/1 stockpile in three decades, a full 2.4 bln bu ahead of the drought-reduced figure from three years ago. Bean stocks at 1.55 bln bu would be the largest in ten years, 50% more than both the 2013 and 2014 March 1st figures.


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