Morning Grain Comments, 04/06/2016

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Chicago & KC wheat responded emphatically to yesterday’s initial condition rating, as Chi actually led the complex in trade volume overnight with a steady decline throughout; some precip chances are on the way for the driest areas of that HRWW crop this weekend and beyond as well...

Japan is looking for 137,486 tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender, including 56k from the U.S., 60k from Canada, and 22k from Australia; the country also announced imports of 27k tonnes of feed wheat and 24k tonnes of feed barley for livestock use in an SBS tender this morning.

Ethiopia issued another tender for 70k tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat yesterday, after buying 499k tonnes in a previous tender this week, likely from the Black Sea region. Meanwhile, Tunisia purchased 42k tonnes of optional- origin durum wheat yesterday at $283/tonne C&F, for July-August.

Private analysts Celeres pegged Brazil’s 2015/16 soybean crop at a record 99.9 million tonnes yesterday, up from 99.1 MMT in March, with total corn output at 87.5 MMT, up from 87.1 MMT last month.

A senior government official in Zambia yesterday announced the suspension of corn exports, in order to verify local stocks following the drought; production was pegged at 2.4 MMT in 2015/16, down from 2.6 MMT the season prior, while the USDA had ‘14/15 and ‘15/16 corn exports at record-high totals of 700k and 800k tonnes, respectively.

NASS pegged national winter wheat crop ratings at 59% good/excellent to begin the spring reporting season, up from the 55% g/ex final fall ratings and the 58% average trade estimate, and well ahead of 44% last year and the 42% five-year average. First corn & spring wheat planting reports come next week. Individual southern state corn planting reports yesterday showed most remaining well behind last year and average paces, with TX at 42% complete (versus the 47% 5YA), LA at 46% done (vs the 82% 5YA), AR at 31% (vs the 36% 5YA), MS at 19% (vs 49% on average), AL at 13% (vs 25%), and GA at 43% (vs 48% on average). Southern corn belt states KS, MO, and IL came in at 6%, 3%, and 0% done at this point, respectively.


Winter wheat ratings came in strong at 59% good/excellent yesterday afternoon, up from the 55% rating pre-dormancy, and well above the previous three years and the five-year average on this date. Far and away #1 state KS rose eight points to 55% g/ex, compared to just 33% LY and the 37% 5YA. The U.S. rating continues to track close to 2011/12, a crop which peaked at 64% g/ex in the coming month and registered the highest production in the last seven years.



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